Are you ready for the MLS regular-season run-in? It’s coming, and Toronto FC better shape up.
Toronto FC currently sits eighth in the Eastern Conference with 30 points. If the season ended today, the team would qualify for the playoffs, sneaking into a wild card spot by two points. With the current season leaving little room for more success outside of the Canadian Championship hopes, making the postseason has to be the goal.
With the regular season restarting this weekend, how are the Reds’ chances looking?
Believe it or not, there is methodology for predicting the table for the rest of the season. If we were to assume all teams will continue at their current points-per-game rate, the current East standings would be the final East standings:
However, that explanation is a bit too simplistic.
For a start, it doesn’t take into account teams’ recent form, the strength of the opposition for the remaining games in the regular season, and other factors.
Based on the remaining schedule, Nashville have the easiest run of matches, playing the Chicago Fire twice, New England, DC United, and Austin. CF Montréal have a manageable schedule, but will struggle to make the playoffs given they have four away games and play teams like Cincinnati, Charlotte, and New York City FC. Philadelphia and Atlanta’sschedules look difficult, too.
Taking that all into account, here’s my stab at a more realistic final table prediction:
I did not include teams in first to sixth in the conference as they are almost guaranteed a playoff position. Also, teams 13 to 15 are close to being out of the playoffs.
So, with eight games left in TFC’s MLS regular season, how will the rest of the season play out for Toronto FC?
Saturday, Aug. 24 —Houston Dynamo (A)
Toronto haven’t played in Houston since 2019, when they lost 3-1 at home with a starting XI without any DPs. The last game TFC played in Houston was April 21, 2018 — the infamous match before the CONCACAF Champions League final in which Greg Vanney started a reserve side and promptly lost 5-1. Houston are currently 6th in the West and were booted from the Leagues Cup after losing to Toluca on penalties. Toronto should have a fighting chance if they’re able to contain the Dynamic Duo of Amine Bassi and Ibrahim Aliyu.
Prediction: Draw
Saturday, Aug. 31 —DC United (H)
TFC travelled to DC in June and left with a 2-2 draw, denied a win by a Mateus Klich penalty in the dying moments of the match after red cards were shown to Federico Bernardeschi and Nicksoen Gomis. Toronto should get a result against this team at BMO Field as DCU has a worse goal differential than TFC and can’t really defend effectively either. Hopefully, Toronto FC are more disciplined this time around.
Result: Win
Saturday, Sept. 14 —Austin FC (H)
Austin are 10th in the West and haven’t won a match in MLS play since the start of July at the time of writing. However, they beat Liga MX giants Pumas and CF Monterrey in the Leagues Cup group stage. Perhaps the Mexican sides did not field their strongest teams. Toronto should get a result at home as Austin have never played at BMO Field and rarely come north of the border into an often inhospitable climate.
Result: Win
Wednesday, Sept. 18 —Columbus Crew (H)
It’s the Columbus Crew. MLS champions. CONCACAF Champions Cup finalists. Leagues Cup semi-finalists. Toronto lost 4-0 to them earlier this year in Columbus. Don’t expect much in the way of a result in this match.
Result: Loss
Saturday, Sept. 21 —Colorado Rapids (A)
I hate to give credit to Chris Armas, so I won’t. The only reason Colorado are doing well this year is that the Rapids ownership decided to actually spend money on players like Rafael Navarro, Cole Bassett, and Djordje Mihailovic, who have scored 30 goals between them. Colorado are an offensive threat and no longer reliy on other team’s castoffs. I feel bad for Robin Fraser, who had to endure four years of ineptitude. A short turnaround, combined with the altitude, will result in a loss for TFC.
Result: Loss
Saturday, Sept. 28 —Chicago Fire (A)
Believe it or not, the Chicago Fire parted ways with Xherdan Shaqiri with a “mutually agreed” termination of his contract. See, it can be done, TFC! Toronto lost 4-1 to Chicago in June of this year but were without Bernardeschi, Osorio, and Laryea. Chicago has been wildly inconsistent this year and cannot score enough goals to make matches competitive. Expect Toronto to be more hungry for a win and get 3 much-needed points at Soldier Field.
Result: Win
Wednesday, Oct. 2 — New York Red Bulls (H)
The Red Bulls play NYCFC on September 28 in a derby match and might have an emotional hangover when they have to travel to Toronto to play. Also, the Red Bull style of high-paced football takes its toll on players and results in tired legs and injuries. A home match in October presents favourable conditions for TFC to grind out a draw against a decent team.
Result: Draw
Saturday, Oct. 5 —Inter Miami (H)
Messi will surely be in South America with Argentina in preparation for a World Cup qualifier against Venezuela on October 9. Also, Miami might have the Supporters’ Shield clinched by this time and may decide to leave a few players like Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets at home to rest up. It’s probably going to be cold and Florida-based teams don’t like those conditions. Am I crazy to think TFC have a chance to get a draw in the final match of the season?
Result: Draw
These predictions are somewhat optimistic and probably wildly incorrect. However, they would mean that Toronto FC would remain in a playoff position. Perhaps Montréal can earn that ninth playoff spot to qualify for the play-in game against Toronto! I would like nothing more to see Montreal eliminated by TFC once again.
